Shirin Ebadi to Alhurra: The Iranian Regime Will Fall, and the Protest Movement Has Gone Underground
Just one day after the recent ceasefire, Iranian Nobel Peace Prize winner and human rights lawyer Shirin Ebadi made striking remarks describing the Iranian regime as a “paper tiger.” She said the Israeli strikes on Revolutionary Guard commanders and nuclear scientists inside Iran had exposed the regime’s military and security fragility.
Speaking to Alhurra, Ebadi emphasized:
“This regime knows only how to repress its people; it is incapable of protecting its borders.”
She added, in a message directed to Iranians:
“This is a weak government that can only silence its critics through bullets and prisons.”
Ebadi firmly rejected any foreign intervention to overthrow the regime, stressing that:
“Change must come from within Iran and by the hands of the people themselves.”
She noted that the fierce crackdown after the death of Mahsa Amini did not end the protest movement, but rather “pushed it underground,” adding:
“The protest wasn’t just about the hijab, it was against an entire system built on violence and discrimination.”
Ebadi said women would lead the change in Iran, pointing out:
“The regime fears them more than any other group.”
She also called for speeding up recognition of a two-state solution between Israel and Palestine to strip the regime of its regional justifications.
She concluded confidently:
“Yes, the people will prevail. This regime cannot withstand the awareness and courage of the youth.”
Interview transcript:
Alhurra: Dr. Ebadi, just one day after the ceasefire, you described the Islamic Republic’s leadership as a mere paper tiger. What led you to use that phrase?
Shirin Ebadi: On the very first day of the war, over 20 commanders from the IRGC and military, and more than six of our nuclear scientists, were killed by drones made or assembled by Israel inside Iranian territory and launched from within. This means Israel can easily build drones in Iran and use them to kill people. It shows how weak Iran is, both militarily and security-wise. In reality, the Islamic Republic’s "paper tiger" can only “threaten” the Iranian people.
Alhurra: Was that phrase also meant as a message to the Iranian public?
Shirin Ebadi: We wanted to tell them that the regime is not as strong as it claims. It’s a message to the government: what kind of government is this? One that is extremely weak yet deeply entrenched. And it’s also a message to the Iranian people: Look—this government only uses force to brutalize its people. It wants to silence every opposing voice with bullets and prison. And it’s totally incapable of dealing with more serious matters like war or national security.
Alhurra: You’ve long advocated for peaceful transition in Iran. But when the U.S. and Israel attacked Iranian nuclear sites, some saw it as a potential opening for regime change. Why did you oppose external help in overthrowing the regime?
Shirin Ebadi: No matter what happens, change must come from inside Iran and through the efforts of its people. Fortunately, our people are waging a peaceful struggle. It takes time, but it will succeed. You can already see the results. Just look at the government’s approval ratings. When it came to power in 1979, over 90% of Iranians supported it. Today, if a referendum were held, over 80% would vote against it. That is one result of the people’s peaceful resistance.
Alhurra: Given that the regime is armed to the teeth and operates a police state, how can Iranians bring about change from within?
Shirin Ebadi: Look at how the regime operates: it uses all its power to crush dissent—bullets, prisons, threats, confiscation of property, even pressure on the families of journalists working abroad. It uses all of that just to survive. But the result is the opposite: all this violence is pushing the people further away from the regime.
Alhurra: Many remember the Iran-Iraq War. Do you think that memory affects people’s attitudes toward foreign intervention, even if they want to see the regime fall?
Shirin Ebadi: I’ve worked for democracy in Iran for years, and people know this. Foreign intervention—especially military intervention—can hinder democracy. All we expect from foreign governments is that they don’t strengthen our dictator. Don’t make deals that empower the regime at the expense of the people. Don’t let them access more money than ever before. These funds aren’t used to improve the lives of Iranians—they are spent fueling regional wars. Look—despite our oil and gas wealth, we suffer two-hour power cuts daily. That causes serious public anger. So we must oppose foreign meddling, and all we ask is: do not help our oppressor. The struggle for democracy is our duty—and we’re carrying it out.
Alhurra: Some Iranians felt hope after the recent attacks. Others felt despair, or even fear. Is Iran more divided than we think? Or is there a deeper unity we’re not seeing?
Shirin Ebadi: No, this war hasn’t united the people, and it won’t reconcile them with the government. People remember that ever since 1979, this regime’s foreign policy has aimed to destroy Israel and expel America from the region. That very policy has brought war upon the Iranian people. We have a problem with these policies. The Iranian people aren’t at war with anyone—they want to live in peace.
Alhurra: You’ve said Iran’s future must be built by Iranians themselves. But what kind of government do they actually want?
Shirin Ebadi: The Iranian people have repeatedly said they’re tired of religious tyranny and want a democratic and secular government. We’re like other Muslim peoples in the Middle East—we are Muslims, but we also believe that everyone, regardless of religion, should live freely.
Alhurra: After Mahsa Amini, Iran saw a protest movement that seemed unstoppable. But after this conflict, mass protests have faded. What changed?
Shirin Ebadi: Nothing has changed—except many were killed in the streets. Others lost their eyes. With the use of rubber bullets, the protests vanished. They no longer take to the streets like before—but the movement still exists. And let’s not forget: this wasn’t just about the hijab. It was against the government itself and its violent, repressive, rights-violating policies. People want this regime gone not just because of the hijab—but because of all its abuses.
After all the killings in the streets, activists wisely turned to underground organizing. Fortunately, the UN Human Rights Council has now formed a fact-finding committee to investigate all these cases and report on them.
Alhurra: Let’s talk about women’s status in Iran. You’ve said repeatedly that women will open the door to democracy in Iran. Yet the regime has doubled down on repressing them. Is this fear or a calculated strategy?
Shirin Ebadi: I still believe that women’s victory in Iran will pave the way for democracy. That’s why the government fears women so much. Right now, many women are in our prisons—charged with nothing more than demanding equal rights with men. The regime accuses them all of being enemies of the state and sentences them to long prison terms.
Alhurra: You’ve also called for a two-state solution between Israelis and Palestinians—not just on moral grounds, but because it could undermine Tehran’s regional influence. How could peace in the region destabilize the regime?
Shirin Ebadi: Since its founding, the Islamic Republic has declared its allegiance to Palestine and made it its mission to destroy Israel. Given the oppression faced by Palestinians, and their struggle to defend their land, if a two-state solution is achieved and an independent Palestinian state is established, the Islamic Republic will lose its excuse. It will no longer be able to hide behind the Palestinian cause. That would be the end of it. Recognizing Palestinian rights, in line with countless UN resolutions, would pull the rug from under a tyrannical regime like Iran’s. It would strip it of its justification for sponsoring terrorists.
Alhurra: You said the people will triumph and this regime will fall. After this war and its aftermath—do you still believe that?
Shirin Ebadi: Absolutely. The people will win. History has proven that no regime can survive if the majority of society is against it.
Alhurra: What gives you hope?
Shirin Ebadi: The power and awareness of our youth. During the Mahsa movement, we saw, for the first time, 13- and 14-year-old girls taking to the streets chanting against the government. Our young generation is aware, defiant—and braver than my generation ever was.